Revista de Análisis Económico (2014)
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Item Convergence and Long-Run Uncertainty(ILADES; Georgetown University; Universidad Alberto Hurtado. Facultad de Economía y Negocios, 2014) Pincheira, PabloItem Demographic Transition and Public Policy: Chile 1850-2000(ILADES; Georgetown University; Universidad Alberto Hurtado. Facultad de Economía y Negocios, 2014) Villalobos, PabloItem Efecto Incumbente en elecciones municipales: un análisis de regresión discontinua para Guatemala(Universidad Alberto Hurtado. Facultad de Economía y Negocios, 2014) Morales Carrera, IvánThis thesis has two main objectives: (i) to analyze empirically, using data from municipal elections in Guatemala for the period 1999-2011, the effect of incumbency on the probability of being reelected and (ii) to explore the possible cause of the effects obtained from the estimations. To do this, a regression discontinuity estimation strategy is implemented exploiting the inherent discontinuity in the system of simple majority voting. Paradoxically, the findings show that far from being an advantage, incumbency seems to be an electoral disadvantage. The result extends to political parties. In the second part, the results are mixed, but suggest that elections seem to play an accountability role, but also are an important mechanism to discover the type (or quality) of politicians. This work is an important contribution to the limited literature on the dynamics of local elections in Guatemala and opens the door to future research issues.Item Efectos de la exención tributaria a las ganancias de capital en el precio de las acciones en Chile(Universidad Alberto Hurtado. Facultad de Economía y Negocios, 2014) Agostini, Claudio; Siravegna, MarielThe reform to capital market in Chile in 2001 enacted, among other things, a capital gain tax exemption for stocks highly traded in stock markets. The goals of the reform were mainly to increase participation, depth and liquidity in the local stock market. However, it is not clear what the effect of a tax reduction is on stock prices because there exists two effects working on opposite directions. On the one hand, there exists a capitalization effect that produces an increase in prices. O the other hand, there exists a lock-in effect that leads a reduction in prices. To determine which of the two effects dominates is, therefore, an empirical question. This work contributes to answering this question, estimating for this purpose the effect on stock prices of the capital gains tax reform in Chile in 2001. Using a difference-in-difference estimator, the results show an average anticipated effect of around –15% on stock prices traded in the Santiago Stock Market. The Price elasticity with respect to the tax rate in the economic literature for similar tax reforms in other countries ranges between –0.20 and –0.27, higher in magnitud than the one found in this study which ranges between –0.006 and –0.01. However, the estimated magnitude is quite close to the cases where the lock-in effect dominates.Item El sistema financiero venezolano. ¿Qué compromete su desempeño?(Universidad Alberto Hurtado. Facultad de Economía y Negocios, 2014) Chirinos, Ana María; Pagliacci, CarolinaEl objetivo de este trabajo es contrastar de qué manera ocurre el desapalancamiento del sistema financiero venezolano ante choques petroleros y monetarios contractivos y cuáles son los riesgos que emergen en cada caso. Si bien ambos choques comparten características similares en términos del comportamiento de los depósitos y las tasas de interés, las consecuencias adversas y los riesgos implícitos de un choque petrolero son mayores, debido a su efecto recesivo sobre la actividad real y su impacto sobre las finanzas públicas.Item The Distributive Effects of Education: an Unconditional Quantile Regression Approach(ILADES; Georgetown University; Universidad Alberto Hurtado. Facultad de Economía y Negocios, 2014) Alejo, Javier; Gabrielli, María Florencia; Sosa-Escudero, WalterItem The yield curve factors and economic surprises in the chilean bond market(Universidad Alberto Hurtado. Facultad de Economía y Negocios, 2014) Ceballos, LuisThis paper attempts to review the main factors of the yield curve in Chilean market during the period 2005-2013. Two different approaches are used to compute the main three factors denoted as the level, slope and curvature of the yield curve. Then, the impact of economic surprises and announcements are analyzed. Our results indicate that local surprises and announcements (both local and external) have similar effects on the estimated factors under both approaches, whereas is evidenced an asymmetric impact in the case of external surprises.Item Variables que Afectan la Tasa de Incumplimiento de Créditos de los Chilenos(ILADES; Georgetown University; Universidad Alberto Hurtado. Facultad de Economía y Negocios, 2014) Ormazabal, FranciscoItem Welfare analysis of an optimal carbon tax in Chile(Universidad Alberto Hurtado. Facultad de Economía y Negocios, 2014) Espinosa, Cristian; Fornero, JorgeWe analyze a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes a negative externality that arises from fossil fuels burning. The carbon released to the atmosphere by electricity producers is the main driver of climate change. We adapt the optimal tax derived by Golosov et al. (2011) to a small open economy to force polluters to internalize their damages. The results show that the tax benefits outweigh their costs; yet welfare gains seem to be marginal under plausible parameters. We calculate the optimal carbon tax for Chile and the tax effectiveness achieved, which is around 10 percent. The results remain robust to variations in the utility function, changes in parameters that determine the externality and alternative degrees of commitment to reduce emissions.